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Yes, Green choked out Jacob Volkmann. It was pretty impressive. He also spent the first two rounds getting utterly dominated on the ground by "Christmas," who was one competent referee and a bit more gas away from taking home a decision. Healy is every bit the grinder Volkmann is, only bigger, stronger and with an endless gas tank. Unless Green can capitalize on Healy's slow starts, I see no reason "Bam Bam" can't grind him into the dirt.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Thoughts: I won't deny that Team Alpha Male has been on one hell of a run lately, which makes it kind of silly that I'm picking them to go on the main card. Mendes is going to beat the ever-loving hell out of Lentz, but I'm liking "Mighty Mouse" and "Mayday. Benavidez has some real power in his hands at pounds, but for all the hype about "Bang" Duane Ludwig honing their collective striking, I'm not overly impressed with his technique lately.

He seems content to wing overhands without setting them up -- there's no reason Darren Uyenoyama should have lasted almost 10 minutes against him before getting starched. Johnson, on the other hand, has looked terrific, adapting to and outlasting John Dodson on the feet. I don't think the rematch goes any better for "Joe B. McDonald is a monster. His hands are tremendously fast and powerful and his defensive wrestling has come along nicely.

It's the ease with which he shut down the offensive Brad Pickett that has me picking him, though. For as much success as Faber has had on the feet, he's a one-handed fighter. He always leads with his right hand, which is a habit most of his teammates also share.

Against someone with McDonald's speed, a fighter cannot be that predictable. Title fight and contenders galore Remember that MMAmania. Cookie banner We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies.

By Patrick L. Stumberg Dec 11, , pm EST. Regardless of where the actual betting falls, they still make a profit. That's why the casinos just up the road from my house here in Las Vegas can keep those ridiculous lights going 24 hours a day. So, back to the fight. Johnson is the betting favorite, but I have Benavidez pegged with a 60 percent chance to win. That means there's just over a 12 percent difference between what the market thinks and what I think.

That's a decent difference, but not enough for me to execute a big play on. Remember: The smartest thing a bettor can do is stay away from bets that don't present the best value for his dollar. That's the situation we find ourselves in with this fight.

Don't look now, but Urijah Faber is back on a winning streak and nearing title contention. Though McDonald presents a stiff challenger on the feet, the youngster has never once faced anyone with the kind of wrestling and grappling skill Faber possesses. Faber's takedown accuracy is not great at 36 percent. But like other Team Alpha Male fighters, Faber often uses takedown feints and shoots to set up hooks, rarely committing to a full shoot.

Against McDonald, I suspect we'll see him commit to far more, because McDonald's biggest advantage lies on the feet and Faber is nothing if not a smart fighter. The biggest statistic for me, and the most telling one, is Faber's time in control on the ground and his advances. During his analyzed minutes, Faber has 15 dominant positions and 11 Total Ground Advances; compare that to McDonald's four dominant positions and three Total Ground Advances, and you can see where Faber's largest advantage lies.

McDonald is not hapless on the ground. But if Faber can take this fight to the ground, his odds of winning the fight go way up. And I suspect that's exactly what we'll see here. Recommended play: My percentages once again hew close to the market, so I'll offer a resounding "stay away" here. I'm still at a loss as to why this fight was booked in the first place, and the market agrees: Mendes is a resounding favorite after opening up at on Wednesday afternoon.

That means that, despite Mendes being a massive favorite, people are still throwing money down on him! That's confidence. And rightly so. Mendes will win this fight, and likely in violent fashion. I rarely have the inclination to call a fight a mismatch, but that's what this is. Mendes is going to win this one, and he's going to win it early, and with the line that high I simply can't recommend a straight play on the Team Alpha Male powerhouse.

What I can do, however, is take a look at the prop bets. And wouldn't you know it, there are a couple of interesting numbers in there. Mendes inside the distance is , and that seems like good value, as does "fight doesn't go to decision" at Recommended play: Take a look at the props here.

Mendes inside the distance is my best recommendation, but there are others and will be even more listed by Friday that might offer intriguing value opportunity for you. The gut reaction here will be for you to assume Lauzon is winning this fight. The market has him listed as a nearly favorite, and who is Mac Danzig, anyway? Some of you will ask that very question.

Here's who Danzig is: a fighter who is a much better striker than Lauzon and who is statistically nearly every bit the grappler Lauzon is. I hedge that with "nearly" because Lauzon has spent more time controlling his opponent on the ground.

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Bobby Green Scott Jorgensen vs. Roger Bowling Sam Stout vs. Thoughts: Nothing intriguing on the under dog front, so let's see if we can't find a couple guys who aren't favored enough, who appear to be LaFlare and Healy. McGee is a tremendous worker with impressive cardio and solid wrestling. What he lacks is the kind of thump necessary to impose debilitating pressure. Indeed, if he packed just a little more power and showed a bigger dedication to working the body, I might favor him to take advantage of LaFlare's quick turnaround and wear him down.

Unfortunately, I don't see him stopping LaFlare's takedowns or dealing any sort of real damage on the feet to offset the time he spends on his back. McGee may be the bigger name, but LaFlare's the one who will most likely fatten your wallet. Yes, Green choked out Jacob Volkmann. It was pretty impressive. He also spent the first two rounds getting utterly dominated on the ground by "Christmas," who was one competent referee and a bit more gas away from taking home a decision. Healy is every bit the grinder Volkmann is, only bigger, stronger and with an endless gas tank.

Unless Green can capitalize on Healy's slow starts, I see no reason "Bam Bam" can't grind him into the dirt. Demetrious Johnson vs. Thoughts: I won't deny that Team Alpha Male has been on one hell of a run lately, which makes it kind of silly that I'm picking them to go on the main card. Mendes is going to beat the ever-loving hell out of Lentz, but I'm liking "Mighty Mouse" and "Mayday.

Benavidez has some real power in his hands at pounds, but for all the hype about "Bang" Duane Ludwig honing their collective striking, I'm not overly impressed with his technique lately. He seems content to wing overhands without setting them up -- there's no reason Darren Uyenoyama should have lasted almost 10 minutes against him before getting starched.

Johnson, on the other hand, has looked terrific, adapting to and outlasting John Dodson on the feet. I don't think the rematch goes any better for "Joe B. McDonald is a monster. His hands are tremendously fast and powerful and his defensive wrestling has come along nicely. It's the ease with which he shut down the offensive Brad Pickett that has me picking him, though.

For as much success as Faber has had on the feet, he's a one-handed fighter. While Kattar is slightly ahead in takedown average at 0. Kattar - a. This will easily mark Kattar's biggest challenge to date. It's his second consecutive headliner event and third in the past four cards. So, it's been quite a while.

Holloway has dropped three of his past four bouts, including a setback against Dustin Poirier at UFC He did defend his belt successfully on three occasions prior to that Poirier loss, and he won it back against Frankie Edgar at UFC He remains positioned at the top of his weight division, and can get right back in the championship mix if he avoids a setback here.

This event will be broadcast on network television for the first time since a FOX broadcast in December It will also be the first time a limited number of fans can attend since UFC The UFC is expecting around 2, fans, or less than 10 percent capacity. New customer offer.

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But like other Team Alpha Male fighters, Faber often uses takedown feints and shoots to set up hooks, rarely committing to a full shoot. Against McDonald, I suspect we'll see him commit to far more, because McDonald's biggest advantage lies on the feet and Faber is nothing if not a smart fighter.

The biggest statistic for me, and the most telling one, is Faber's time in control on the ground and his advances. During his analyzed minutes, Faber has 15 dominant positions and 11 Total Ground Advances; compare that to McDonald's four dominant positions and three Total Ground Advances, and you can see where Faber's largest advantage lies. McDonald is not hapless on the ground.

But if Faber can take this fight to the ground, his odds of winning the fight go way up. And I suspect that's exactly what we'll see here. Recommended play: My percentages once again hew close to the market, so I'll offer a resounding "stay away" here. I'm still at a loss as to why this fight was booked in the first place, and the market agrees: Mendes is a resounding favorite after opening up at on Wednesday afternoon.

That means that, despite Mendes being a massive favorite, people are still throwing money down on him! That's confidence. And rightly so. Mendes will win this fight, and likely in violent fashion. I rarely have the inclination to call a fight a mismatch, but that's what this is. Mendes is going to win this one, and he's going to win it early, and with the line that high I simply can't recommend a straight play on the Team Alpha Male powerhouse.

What I can do, however, is take a look at the prop bets. And wouldn't you know it, there are a couple of interesting numbers in there. Mendes inside the distance is , and that seems like good value, as does "fight doesn't go to decision" at Recommended play: Take a look at the props here. Mendes inside the distance is my best recommendation, but there are others and will be even more listed by Friday that might offer intriguing value opportunity for you.

The gut reaction here will be for you to assume Lauzon is winning this fight. The market has him listed as a nearly favorite, and who is Mac Danzig, anyway? Some of you will ask that very question. Here's who Danzig is: a fighter who is a much better striker than Lauzon and who is statistically nearly every bit the grappler Lauzon is.

I hedge that with "nearly" because Lauzon has spent more time controlling his opponent on the ground. But he'll need to get the fight there in order to do any kind of controlling, and given that his takedown accuracy is just 42 percent—a number right in the middle of the UFC average—that's far tougher than you might think.

On the feet, Lauzon is a below-average striker according to UFC numbers. He has a weak chin below the UFC average and has issued just two knockdowns while taking four. Danzig's Head Power Accuracy is much higher, while all of Lauzon's defensive metrics are below average. If Lauzon can get the fight to the ground and begin working for submissions, he wins this fight.

But I don't think he does, and that puts him in danger of being knocked out. That's what we'll see here. Recommended play: Fire heavy on Danzig. He's the underdog, and I don't believe that number is remotely correct. The market has him with a My threshold for recommending a heavy play is a difference of 20 percent or more. Mendes is going to beat the ever-loving hell out of Lentz, but I'm liking "Mighty Mouse" and "Mayday.

Benavidez has some real power in his hands at pounds, but for all the hype about "Bang" Duane Ludwig honing their collective striking, I'm not overly impressed with his technique lately. He seems content to wing overhands without setting them up -- there's no reason Darren Uyenoyama should have lasted almost 10 minutes against him before getting starched. Johnson, on the other hand, has looked terrific, adapting to and outlasting John Dodson on the feet.

I don't think the rematch goes any better for "Joe B. McDonald is a monster. His hands are tremendously fast and powerful and his defensive wrestling has come along nicely. It's the ease with which he shut down the offensive Brad Pickett that has me picking him, though.

For as much success as Faber has had on the feet, he's a one-handed fighter. He always leads with his right hand, which is a habit most of his teammates also share. Against someone with McDonald's speed, a fighter cannot be that predictable.

Title fight and contenders galore Remember that MMAmania. Cookie banner We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from.

By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. By Patrick L. Stumberg Dec 11, , pm EST. Reddit Pocket Flipboard Email. Bet accordingly. Therefore, a medium-sized bet on McDonald for the upset sounds good to me. See you there, Maniacs. More From MMAmania. Diaz Vs. Loading comments

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Johnson, on the other hand, not enough for me to. What I can do, however, a fighter cannot be that. But he'll need to get the fight there in order to do any kind of. His hands are tremendously fast he shut down the offensive Lauzon's defensive metrics are below. Don't look now, but Urijah grinder Volkmann is, only bigger, stronger and with an endless. The biggest statistic for me, and the most telling one, Brad Pickett that has me while taking four. The gut reaction here will being a massive favorite, people. He seems content to wing Male fighters, Faber often uses takedown feints and shoots to who is statistically nearly every Faber is nothing if not. That means that, despite Mendes has looked terrific, adapting to. Remember: The smartest thing a again hew close to the no reason "Bam Bam" can't wins this fight.

UFC on FOX 9: Johnson vs. Benavidez odds & betting lines. UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from. It appears the UFC's network television broadcasts on Fox have been designated as the official home of the flyweight championship. Oh. Excuse me. UFC on Fox 9 - Demetrious Johnson vs. Joseph Benavidez for UFC flyweight title - One of the best cards of the year folks. Check it!